Trump promised voters he would focus on boosting the economy and lowering prices. Recent data and expert analysis suggest his policies are having the opposite effect: poorly executed tariff policies, economic uncertainty, and sharp declines in consumer confidence point toward growing economic instability.
Trump's Erratic And Poorly Implemented Economic Policies Hurt Everyday Americans
Commerce Department data showed increased inflation in February 2025 Axios. This suggests that price increases aren't slowing down, raising the cost of living and consumer purchasing power of everyday Americans.
Trump's policies are making the situation worse. Economic experts, including Kyle Handley (UC San Diego), predict Trump's erratic tariffs will cause noticeable consumer price increases, with potential for "massive" impact depending on rates. (ABC News, 3/26/25)
Car buyers and the auto industry may be among the hardest hit. Cox Automotive revised its 2025 U.S. auto sales forecast downward by 700,000 vehicles (4.3% decrease), from 16.3 million to 15.6 million, citing tariff-related economic uncertainty. (Michigan Advance, 3/27/25)
Consumer sentiment has collapsed under Trump, with the index falling by 12% in March compared to February, reflecting growing public concern over inflation and unemployment Axios.
Trump's Erratic Policies Hurt Business And Jobs
Businesses are delaying critical investments due to tariff uncertainty, with 25% of CFOs reporting they've cut capital spending plans due to trade policy concerns. (ABC News, 3/26/25; CNN, 3/26/25)
Tariffs have become CFOs' top concern, with the gap between this and the second-ranked issue being the widest in 20 years of survey history, according to Duke University's John Graham. (CNN, 3/26/25)
One in four U.S. businesses has scaled back hiring plans due to trade war concerns, with white-collar sectors particularly affected by the economic uncertainty. (CNN, 3/26/25; CNN, 3/27/25)
The Fed has put rate cuts on hold due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade and fiscal policies, limiting tools to counteract economic slowdown. (Reuters, 3/3/25)
As A Result, Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment Are Collapsing
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNowcast projects a GDP contraction at an annual rate of 0.5%, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity Axios.
The Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9, marking the fourth straight monthly decline and reaching its lowest level since January 2021. (Newsweek, 3/27/25)
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 10.5% to 57.8 points between February and March, reflecting a 22% decline since December. (Newsweek, 3/27/25)
The Expectations Index tumbled to 65.2, its lowest level in 12 years and below the 80-mark threshold the Conference Board identifies as typically signaling "a recession ahead." (Newsweek, 3/27/25)
74% of Americans believe inflation will worsen over the next year, with 70% expressing greater concern about inflation now than in September. (Newsweek, 3/27/25)
Financial Markets and Economic Indicators Are On The Downslope
The S&P 500 has experienced a correction, while the Nasdaq lost as much as 9% in just 10 days, with significant drops in Big Tech stocks reflecting investor concerns. (Business Insider, 3/23/25; Reuters, 3/3/25)
Investors have sought safety in U.S. Treasuries, with the two-year yield falling below 4.00% for the first time since October, and the 10-year yield tumbling 60 basis points since mid-January. (Reuters, 3/3/25)
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showed a stunning drop from +2.3% to -2.8% in just one week, and from approximately +4.0% a month earlier. (Reuters, 3/3/25)
Goldman Sachs raised recession odds from 15% to 20%, while Moody's Analytics pegged recession chances at 35% over the next year. (ABC News, 3/26/25)
Trump May Move To Cook The Economic Data Books; Making The Situation Worse In An Attempt To Make Himself Look Better
Discussions about altering GDP calculations by separating government spending have raised concerns about potential political motivations behind economic data reporting. (New York Magazine, 3/4/25)
Economic experts warn that administration interest in redefining GDP for apparently political reasons raises concerns about potential future manipulation of inflation or employment data. (New York Magazine, 3/4/25)
Economists have expressed concern about the potential consequences of altered economic reporting methods on policy decision-making and public trust. (New York Magazine, 3/4/25)
Overall, The Trump Economic Outlook For America Is Bleak
Economic experts, including Federal Reserve officials, see indications of potential stagflation—the toxic combination of weakening growth and accelerating inflation. (CNN, 3/25/25)
63% of Americans believe the government is not doing enough to address key economic issues, with rising insurance costs (95%), inflation (94%), and the general state of the economy (89%) cited as top concerns. (Newsweek, 3/27/25)
Economist Phil Suttle noted he expected Trump's agenda to weigh on the economy but was surprised by how quickly it appeared to have a negative impact. (Reuters, 3/3/25)
In its first months, the Trump administration has faced declining sentiment among consumers, businesses, and investors, alongside growing recession concerns. (Business Insider, 3/23/25)
March 2025: Inflation Remained High In February According To Commerce Department According to Axios, "The Federal Reserve's go-to gauge showed inflation stayed hot in February, the Commerce Department said on Friday." [Axios, 3/28/25]
February 2025: PCE Price Index Indicated Rising Inflation According to Axios, "The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation — was hot in February, the Commerce Department said Friday. [...] Core PCE rose at a 3.6% annualized pace over the last three months, the highest since last March." [Axios, 3/28/25]
Early 2025: Consumer Demand Slowed According to Axios, "Personal consumption expenditures, adjusted for inflation, rose just 0.1% in February after dropping by 0.6% the previous month." [Axios, 3/28/25]
March 2025: Consumer Sentiment On Economy Declined According to Axios, "The headline consumer sentiment index fell to 57 in March, a 12% drop from February, confirming a preliminary release two weeks ago that showed a similar drop-off." [Axios, 3/28/25]
March 2025: Public Concern Over Inflation And Employment Increased According to Axios, "Survey respondents now anticipate 5% inflation over the next year, up from 4.3% in February. But they are also intensely gloomy about the job market, with two-thirds of respondents expecting the unemployment rate to rise in the next year — the highest since 2009." [Axios, 3/28/25]
March 2025: Stagflation Concerns Heightened By Economic Indicators According to Axios, "The economy is going through a growth slowdown paired with an inflation surge." The data "shows that there already is more than a whiff of stagflation in the air." [Axios, 3/28/25]
Trump Implemented 25% Tariff On Imported Automobiles In March 2025 According to Axios, "Wednesday's surprise announcement of a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and auto parts was just the latest in a dizzying string of escalations over the last few days." [Axios, 3/27/25]
Trump Administration Planned New Tariffs For April 2, 2025 According to ABC News, "President Donald Trump has vowed to issue a fresh round of tariffs on April 2, presenting it as an inflection point for the economy weeks after a previous set of duties roiled markets and incited recession fears." [ABC News, 3/26/25]
Scott Bessent Identified Target Countries For Tariffs According to ABC News, "'It's 15% of the countries, but it's a huge amount of our trading volume,' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week, describing the countries as a 'Dirty 15.'" [ABC News, 3/26/25]
2025: Tariffs Announced On Canadian and Mexican Imports According to Michigan Advance, "In addition to announcing plans to implement 25% tariffs on automakers that do not produce cars in the U.S. beginning next week, Trump said the administration is also set to implement tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, in what the President has referred to as 'Liberation Day.'" [Michigan Advance, 3/27/25]
2025: UAW President Shawn Fain Supported New Tariffs According to Michigan Advance, "United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain praised the tariffs in a statement, saying that Trump is 'stepping up to end the free trade disaster that has devastated working class communities for decades.'" [Michigan Advance, 3/27/25]
Mary Lovely Warned Of Escalation From New Tariffs According to ABC News, "This certainly will be an escalation," Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who studies trade policy, told ABC News. "We know the direction of travel, if not how far this will go." [ABC News, 3/26/25]
Experts Predicted Tariffs Would Raise Prices According to ABC News, "Kyle Handley, a professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, said he expects consumer prices to rise enough for consumers to identify the change. 'Depending on what tariff rates they put in place, it could be pretty massive,' Handley said." [ABC News, 3/26/25]
2025: Tariffs Likely To Increase Vehicle Costs According to Michigan Advance, "Even when vehicles are assembled in the United States, parts often cross between Canada, the United States and Mexico several times." [Michigan Advance, 3/27/25]
March 2025: Economic Uncertainty Increased Due To Tariff Plans According to Axios, "Most recent consumer and business surveys show wariness about the U.S. economy, as Trump's tariff plans cause broad uncertainty, with expectations of steeper prices in the months ahead." [Axios, 3/28/25]
Uncertainty Over Tariffs Froze Business Investments According to ABC News, "Experts told ABC News the fresh tariffs would put downward pressure on U.S. economic growth, since the additional tax burden for importing businesses and uncertainty about additional duties could deter private sector investment." [ABC News, 3/26/25]
Trump's Tariffs Led To Uncertainty According to CNN, "Trump's trade spat with foreign countries, a key tenet of his economic agenda, has been both baffling and contentious [...] that frenetic back-and-forth has evoked high levels of uncertainty among American consumers, businesses and investors." [CNN, 3/25/25]
Eric Levitz Suggested Indifference to Business Clarity from Trump Administration According to an opinion piece by Eric Levitz in New York Magazine, "Trump's constantly shifting tariff threats indicate an indifference to providing business owners with clarity about the economy's future trajectory." [Eric Levitz - New York Magazine, 3/4/25]
2025: Federal Reserve Held Off On Rate Cuts Due To Trump Policies According to Reuters, "But the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is on hold for now, largely because of the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade and fiscal policies." [Reuters, 3/3/25]
2025: Tariffs Caused Decrease In Capital Spending Plans By 25% Of CFOs According to CNN, "About 25% of CFOs say they have cut their capital spending plans this year because of trade policy." [CNN, 3/26/25]
2025: Tariffs Ranked As Top Concern For CFOs According to CNN, "Tariffs have catapulted up the worry list in Corporate America in recent weeks. In fact, Graham said the gap between tariffs and the No. 2 issue is the widest since the survey started asking the question 20 years ago." [CNN, 3/26/25]
2025: John Graham Stated Tariffs Are A Major Risk According to CNN, "Tariffs are first-order concern. At least in the short run, they are a great risk," John Graham, professor of finance at Duke's Fuqua School of Business, told CNN in a phone interview. [CNN, 3/26/25]
2025: 25% of US Businesses Scaled Back Hiring Due To Tariffs According to CNN, "One in four US businesses has scaled back hiring plans due to President Donald Trump's trade war, according to a Duke University survey. Tariffs have become the top concern for chief financial officers, causing a significant drop in economic optimism." [CNN, 3/26/25]
2025: Uncertainty Around Trump Economic Agenda Impacted Hiring Decisions According to CNN, "Those job hunts are coming at a time when rising uncertainty around President Donald Trump's economic agenda is clouding businesses' decision-making and further slowing hiring — especially for specialized and white-collar roles." [CNN, 3/27/25]
2025: Shrivastava Linked Reduced White-Collar Hiring To Trump Economic Policies According to CNN, "Business uncertainty about President Trump's economic policies is contributing to reduced hiring in white-collar sectors." [CNN, 3/27/25]
Consumer Attitudes Worsened Amid Tariff Concerns According to ABC News, "Consumer attitudes worsened more than expected in March, dropping to their lowest levels since 2021, a Conference Board survey on Tuesday showed." [ABC News, 3/26/25]
March 2025: University Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Fell For Third Consecutive Month According to Newsweek, "The Consumer Sentiment Index dropped by 10.5 percent to 57.8 points between February and March, the third consecutive drop and a 22 percent decline from December." [Newsweek, 3/27/25]
March 2025: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Fell To Lowest Since January 2021 According to Newsweek, "The closely monitored Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9, lower than the expected six-point drop. This marked the fourth straight month of declines, which have brought the index to its lowest level since January 2021." [Newsweek, 3/27/25]
2025: Tariffs Contributed To Consumer Confidence Decline According to CNN, "A separate report, released Tuesday by The Conference Board, found that consumer confidence plunged in March to the lowest level since January 2021." [CNN, 3/26/25]
Marvch 2025: Conference Board Expectations Index Indicated Potential Recession According to Newsweek, "The Expectations Index—which weighs the outlook for income, business and labor market conditions—tumbled to 65.2, its lowest level in 12 years and below the 80-mark threshold the Conference Board said 'usually signals a recession ahead.'" [Newsweek, 3/27/25]
March 2025: Bill Adams Described Consumers As Spooked By Economic Concerns According to Newsweek, "Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank, in an analysis shared with Newsweek: 'Consumers are spooked by headlines about higher tariffs and trade war, DOGE cuts, and the stock market selloff. When people fear for their jobs, they will cut back on discretionary spending on vacations and going out, and delay big purchases like new houses, cars, or appliances. Discretionary consumer spending is likely to weaken near-term.'" [Newsweek, 3/27/25]
March 2025: Poll Indicated 63% Of Americans Believed Government Was Not Addressing Key Economic Issues According to Newsweek, "Sixty-three percent of those surveyed, meanwhile, believe the government is not doing enough to address key economic issues, which they single out as rising insurance costs (95 percent), inflation (94 percent) and the general state of the economy (89 percent)." [Newsweek, 3/27/25]
2025: Trump's Economic Policies Sparked Stock Market Concerns According to Business Insider, "Trump's economic policies have sparked recession fears and a drop in the stock market. The S&P 500's recent correction reflects investor concerns over Trump's policies." [Business Insider, 3/23/25]
2025: Trump Administration Faced Declining Market Sentiment According to Business Insider, "In its first few months, the Trump administration has been plagued by a declining stock market, a plunge in sentiment among consumers, businesses, and investors, and growing concerns about a recession." [Business Insider, 3/23/25]
2025: Market Volatility Linked To Economic Uncertainty Under Trump According to Reuters, "The Nasdaq has lost as much as 9% in 10 days, with Big Tech down even more. Investors are seeking the safety of U.S. Treasuries: the two-year yield on Friday fell below 4.00% for the first time since October, and the 10-year yield has tumbled 60 bps since mid-January." [Reuters, 3/3/25]
4/25/25: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Indicated Economic Decline According to Reuters, "The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for annualized growth in the current quarter was a stunning -2.8% on Monday, down from +2.3% last week. A month ago the model showed that growth in the January-March period was tracking close to +4.0%." [Reuters, 3/3/25]
Recession Odds Increased Due To Tariffs According to ABC News, "Still, recession fears are mounting on Wall Street as businesses and consumers weather the trade war. Goldman Sachs earlier this month hiked its odds of a recession from 15% to 20%. Moody's Analytics pegged the chances of a recession over the next year at 35%." [ABC News, 3/26/25]
March 2025: Trump's Economic Approval Ratings Fell Below Overall Job Approval According to Navigator Research, "For the first time in Navigator's tracking, President Trump's economic approval rating (net -5; 46 percent approve – 51 percent disapprove) has fallen below his overall approval rating (net -2; 47 percent approve – 49 percent disapprove)." [Navigator Research, 3/17/25]
March 2025: Majority Believed Economy Was Worsening According to Navigator Research, "A majority believe the economy is getting worse (51 percent), which has increased by 14 points since the first Navigator survey conducted after Trump's re-election (37 percent)." [Navigator Research, 3/17/25]
Independents Disapproved Of Trump's Economic Handling In 2025 According to Navigator Research, "Trump's overall approval is underwater by 14 points among independents (37 percent approve – 51 percent disapprove) and his handling of the economy is underwater by 15 points (36 percent approve – 51 percent disapprove)." [Navigator Research, 3/17/25]
March 2025: Clever Real Estate Found 74% Of Americans Believed Inflation Would Worsen Over The Next Year According to Newsweek, "The poll also revealed that nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of Americans believe inflation will worsen over the next year, with 70 percent expressing greater concern about inflation now than in September and only 39 approving of Trump's approach to managing it." [Newsweek, 3/27/25]
Majority Disapproved Of Trump's Handling Of Inflation In 2025 According to Navigator Research, "53 percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling inflation and the cost of living compared to just 41 percent who disapprove. Independents disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living by a two-to-one margin." [Navigator Research, 3/17/25]
2025: Americans Thought Costs Were Increasing Due To Trump's Policies According to Navigator Research, "Two in three Americans believe their costs are going up (67 percent), including 82 percent of Democrats, 65 percent of independents, and 51 percent of Republicans. [...] More Americans believe Trump's economic policies have had a negative impact on the economy (net -17; 33 percent positive – 50 percent negative)." [Navigator Research, 3/17/25]
March 2025: Americans Believed Spending Cuts Were In Wrong Direction According to Navigator Research, "By 10 points, Americans believe Trump and Republicans are cutting spending the wrong way (50 percent) than the right way (40 percent). [...] More than four in five Democrats believe Trump and Republicans are cutting spending the wrong way." [Navigator Research, 3/17/25]
2025: Economic Uncertainty Impacted Voter Sentiment According to Business Insider, "The real risk for Trump is being rejected at the polls, as the Democrats did last year after the economic mood soured. Yardeni predicted Trump will relent to avoid a recession, as a downturn would likely cost Republicans their majorities in both the House and the Senate in the 2026 mid-term elections." [Business Insider, 3/23/25]
Americans Concerned About Economic Indicators In 2025 According to Navigator Research, "The most concerning economic indicators include the price of eggs rising (81 percent concerning, including 55 percent finding this 'very' concerning), tens of thousands of government workers being laid off (69 percent concerning, including 50 percent finding this 'very' concerning), inflation rising (75 percent concerning, including 49 percent finding this 'very' concerning), and new tariffs (72 percent concerning, including 49 percent finding this 'very' concerning)." [Navigator Research, 3/17/25]
Levitz Warned of Potential Economic Data Manipulation Under Trump Administration According to an opinion piece by Eric Levitz in New York Magazine, "The administration's desire to alter the content of GDP — seemingly, due to political concerns — makes the threat of more covert and destructive data manipulation more plausible." [Eric Levitz - New York Magazine, 3/4/25]
Levitz Discussed Potential Consequences of Altering GDP Calculation According to an opinion piece by Eric Levitz in New York Magazine, "Such tampering would at least be transparent; the administration would not be producing fabricated economic statistics, but merely seeking to redefine an existing measure. But the administration's desire to alter the content of GDP — seemingly, due to political concerns — makes the threat of more covert and destructive data manipulation more plausible." [Eric Levitz - New York Magazine, 3/4/25]
Levitz Discussed Impact of Political Motivation on GDP Calculation Change Proposals According to an opinion piece by Eric Levitz in New York Magazine, "Right now, the Trump administration does not have especially strong incentives to manipulate economic data. If this White House is willing to mess around with GDP now, it's conceivable they would be interested in suppressing adverse inflation or employment readings more insidiously in the future." [Eric Levitz - New York Magazine, 3/4/25]
2025: Economist Phil Suttle Warned Of Trump's Economic Impact According to Reuters, "Economist Phil Suttle said he expected Trump's agenda to weigh on the economy this year, but didn't expect it to have such an apparently negative impact so quickly." [Reuters, 3/3/25]
2025: Trump's Agenda Cited As Source Of Economic Uncertainty According to Reuters, "A common thread running through all of this is the huge level of uncertainty being created by U.S. President Donald Trump's agenda: trade protectionism, particularly tariffs; his apparent growing closeness with Russia and distance from traditional allies like Europe; and the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) scythe being taken to federal spending and employment." [Reuters, 3/3/25]
Economic Experts Saw Potential For Stagflation: Slow Growth Combined With Inflation According to CNN, "That toxic combination of weakening growth and accelerating inflation resembles 'stagflation,' and Federal Reserve officials also see the US economy trending in that direction." [CNN, 3/25/25]
Trump's Trade Policies Created Economic Uncertainty According to CNN, "President Donald Trump's fluctuating trade policies have created uncertainty among consumers, businesses and investors." [CNN, 3/25/25]
March 2025: Walmart CEO Reported Financial Strains On Consumers According to Newsweek, "At a late-February event hosted by the Economic Club of Chicago, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said: 'You can see that the money runs out before the month is gone, you can see that people are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month.'" [Newsweek, 3/27/25]
March 2025: Walmart CEO Observed "Stressed Behaviors" Among Budget-Pressured Customers According to Newsweek, "In late February, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said that 'budget-pressured' customers were exhibiting 'stressed behaviors,' such as opting for smaller-sized purchases." [Newsweek, 3/27/25]
2025: Trump Tariffs Predicted To Reduce US Auto Sales By 700,000 Vehicles According to Michigan Advance, "Vehicle sales could stall amid economic uncertainty largely driven by President Donald Trump's tariff plans, economists at Cox Automotive are predicting." [Michigan Advance, 3/27/25]
2025: Cox Automotive Revised Auto Sales Forecast To Reflect Decreased Sales According to Michigan Advance, "Chief economist Jonathan Smoke said the analytics company, which surveys more than 1,000 car dealers to produce a quarterly sentiment index, revised its forecast to reduce the number of new vehicle sales expected this year from 16.3 million to 15.6 million, a 4.3% decrease that equals a 700,000 vehicle decline." [Michigan Advance, 3/27/25]
2025: Law School Applications Increased Due To Economic and Political Factors According to ABC News, "The number of applicants applying to law schools in the United States has increased dramatically in 2025 compared to last year and some experts believe an easier entrance exam, the soft economy and what they describe as a 'Trump bump' are factors fueling the spike." [ABC News, 3/26/25]
Levine Attributed Applicant Spike To Campus Climate And Job Insecurity According to ABC News, "What I'm seeing in my work with students is more related to the insecurities they feel on campus and also just the state of the world in terms of what their prospects are financially with jobs." [ABC News, 3/26/25]
Ivey Attributed Application Spike To Trump Administration Layoffs According to ABC News, "This administration is perhaps contributing more than the previous Trump administration because of all of those mass layoffs in the greater D.C. area -- all those mass layoffs of very capable civil servants." [ABC News, 3/26/25]
2025: Federal Workers Faced Uncertain Employment Market According to CNN, "More federal workers are filing for unemployment than in the past; however, they aren't escalating on a weekly basis." [CNN, 3/27/25]
2025: Shrivastava Described Labor Market As Frozen But Stable According to CNN, "They're entering a labor market that's 'a little bit frozen,' but stable for now, noted Allison Shrivastava, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab." [CNN, 3/27/25]
Stephen Moore Suggested Focusing On Tax Cuts Over Tariffs According to CNN, "Former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore recommends Republicans focus on tax cuts instead of tariffs to boost confidence." [CNN, 3/26/25]